Analysis

The Year The Secular Bitcoin Bull Run Could End

When the December 31, 2021 candle got here to a detailed in Bitcoin, it didn’t simply start a brand new calendar 12 months – it triggered a promote setup of epic proportions. Here is why the secular bull run in cryptocurrency may come to an finish this 12 months, and the primary true bear market emerge.

Bitcoin Yearly Chart Triggers First Ever Sell Setup

You wouldn’t realize it primarily based on the lately bearish price motion, however Bitcoin has been in an ongoing bull market because the second the genesis block was generated precisely thirteen years ago today.

In the span of a traditional childhood rising into a young person, the price per coin has ballooned and bubbled its means from zero to $68,000 per BTC.

Related Reading | Point & Figure: The Chart That Makes Bitcoin Support Cut And Dry

The trajectory hasn’t all the time been up, because the price chart has proven, however the asset has been outrageously bullish nonetheless. Many indicators again up this concept, having by no means crossed into bear territory ever as soon as since price was recorded.

For instance, the month-to-month MACD hasn’t made it beneath the zero line since 2015 regardless of the 2018-2019 “bear market.” The month-to-month Directional Movement Index had solely a month-long non permanent bear cross round mid-2015, however other than that has by no means been bearish for an prolonged part.

However, the sequence of ups and downs skilled through the years, like several thirteen-year-old would expertise, has resulted in a selected promote setup in keeping with the TD Sequential. The device is a market timing indicator developed by Thomas DeMark – which on different timeframes has been helpful in calling reversals.

BTCUSD_2022-01-03_11-09-07

The sign that makes you need to scream "nine!" | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

At 13 years because the asset’s debut, the primary ever TD9 promote setup has appeared on the BTCUSD yearly price chart. On the TradingView BTCUSD Index, price motion started in 2010. Bear market years of 2014-2015 and 2018-2019 excluded, there have been precisely 9 candles with the next open than the earlier candles – triggering the promote setup.

Theorizing The End Of The Secular Bull Run

Despite the ominous sign, all isn’t misplaced for the present bull cycle – though it does give extra credence to a different bull market-ending sample that might be growing.

According to Elliott Wave Theory, markets develop in 5 waves. These 5 impulse waves are damaged down into similarly-behaving sub-waves that alternate between uptrend and corrective phases. In the bigger cycle, these corrective phases are what we name bear markets. In smaller timeframes, corrections usually really feel simply as extreme as the present sentiment would verify.

bitcoin BTCUSD_2022-01-03_11-34-56

The excellent news and the unhealthy information in a single chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Bitcoin seems to be effectively into its fifth impulse wave within the main motive wave cycle. The present rely would counsel that the cryptocurrency can also be inside wave 4 of 5 sub-waves, hinting that the grand finale ought to unfold the within the 12 months forward.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Falls Flat: Examining A Rare Bull Market Corrective Pattern

If Bitcoin price does make it to $100,000 or larger, given the TD9 promote setup on the yearly, and the potential wave construction, this is perhaps a promote sign price taking. But when?

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or be part of the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for unique day by day market insights and technical evaluation schooling. Please observe: Content is instructional and shouldn’t be thought-about funding recommendation.

Featured picture from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

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